Cost Benefit Analysis of KuoKuang Petrochemical’s CO2 Emission Reduction- The application of PAGE2009 model

• Main Authors: Soh, Tiongchen, 蘇中正
• Other Authors: Daigee Shaw
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/10458724284272601141

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 自然資源與環境管理研究所 === 99 === Abstract The siting of the KouKuang petrochemical plant has been one of the most controversial events concerning environment and development in Taiwan. Several environmental protection issues had been debated thoroughly. However, the costs of global warming, or the damage costs that would be caused by the CO2 emission of the plant, had been rarely justified. This study aim to apply PAGE2009 Integrated Assessment Model (PAGE2009 model) to analyze the cost and benefit of reducing KuoKuang Petrochemical’s CO2 emission and to provide some useful insights on climate change issues in Taiwan. PAGE2009 model has been well known as cost-benefit-analysis framework of climate change since Stern Review. PAGE2009 model has several important features, namely climate module with very detailed description and supported by IPCC scientific evidence, flexible modeling structure and ability to perform the risk analysis of climate change issues by Monte-Carlo simulation. The simulation result unsurprisingly reveal that by 2040 the aggregated present value of the preventative costs bear by Taiwan will exceed the aggregated present value of the preventative global benefit. The aggregated present value of the preventative benefit will exceed the preventative costs after some turning point around 2065. Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, CO2 emission reduction, PAGE2009 model