The Impact of Climate Change on Traffic Volumes and Safety of National Freeway -- A Case of National Freeway No. 1

• Main Authors: Hua-Fang Chang, 張鏵方
• Other Authors: Heng-Chi Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50975239472731868294

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運籌管理研究所 === 99 === In recent years, the phenomenon of climatic change has showed around the world. Nowadays, most of the environmental scientists recognized that the problem of dramatic climate changes is a global issue. The impact of climate change has influenced human activities including transportation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is attempting to understand the effects of weather factors on road demand and safety. This study takes the car flow data and accidents of National Freeway No. 1 by applying panel data regression model, Poisson regression model and negative binomial regression Model in our empirical study. The results of the study show that the effects of changes of rainfall and temperature have significant effects on road demand. Further, changes of rainfall have significant effects on road safety. Then, adopting the projection of future climate change by the end of 21 century, this study estimates the impact of climate change on traffic volumes and safety. We find that the temperature will reduce 22％ on the road demand. In addition, the rainfall will increase the road demand in summer, autumn, and 10％ on average road usage, and the rainfall will increase 1％ traffic accidents annually.