A Study on the Financial Crisis Precaution of the Listed Electronic Firms in Taiwan-by Decision Tree

• Main Authors: Wun-Wen Ye, 葉文維
• Other Authors: Ching-Hao Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/60086593378950473198

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險研究所 === 99 === This study applies “Decision Tree” to analyze the financial variables of Taiwanese TSE and OTC listed electronics manufacturing companies between 2007 and 2009. It aims to set up a simple pre-warning model with high accuracy. Twenty selected financial variables are integrated into five factors by using factor-analysis method. The five factors are named “Business Profitability,” “Solvency,” “Business Operating Ability,” “Financial Structure” and “Asset Profitability.” Under the matching ratio of 1:5 for companies in financial crisis and normal companies; data from 2007, 2008 and between 2007 to 2008 are respectively used as training samples; and data from 2009 is used as test sample. Then, the five factors are analyzed individually with “Decision Tree” method. The predictive results are integrated and used as decision guidelines for pre-warning. The results indicate that the percentages of correct predictions are 95.2%, 91.1% and 92.9% respectively, which are higher than the percentage derived from only using a single factor.