| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 99 === The study mainly explores the relationship between the economic business cycle period and medical biotechnology industry of the U.S.A. The study not only analyzes the developing status quo of the American medical health relevant industry but simultaneously explores the trend of these medical health industry stock indexes as well. The study tests the difference and homology in explanation of the expansion and shrinking period during the American business cycle period. The research period starts from January, 1970 to December, 2009, altogether 479 monthly data. The verification data are the American medical health relevant industry index, including three kinds of indexes of the biotechnology pharmaceutical industry index, the medical equipment industry index and the health care industry index. After empirical validation, it is found that the medical health relevant index leads the low point of the American business cycle one month or above; therefore, it can be regarded as a kind of leading indicator of the economic business cycle. Next, it is also found that three kinds of medical health relevant indexes and the high point of the American business cycle have the mutually leading or lagging situation
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