| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 99 === This paper aims to study the lead-lag relationship between the premium revenues and claim expenses of car insurance of four insurance companies ( TFMI, FIRSTINS, UNIONINS and SKINSURANCE ) and the business cycle of Taiwan from 01/1997 to 12/2010, totaling 168 months. The findings are as follows: first, regarding premium revenues, during the expansion periods, TFMI and FIRSTINS act as the leading indicators, while UNIONINS and SKINSURANCE are as the lagging indicators. During the contraction periods, TFMI and SKINSURANCE are as the leading indicators, FIRSTINS and UNIONINS are as the lagging indicators. Second, as for claim expenses: during the expansion periods, most companies are the leading indicators, while during the shrinking periods, most companies serve as the lagging indicators.
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