| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立嘉義大學 === 行銷與運籌研究所 === 99 === Since Taiwan has joined World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002, the Taiwan business and domestic agriculture development have been changed dramatically. The government guides the famers to cultivate crops with high economic value and operate the agriculture in a commercial, professional, and high value added way. Flowers are one of the most potential products in Taiwan’s agriculture. The flower industry has been risen up annually by increasing acreage and value of flora products and expanding domestic and international channels.
In order to compete in the global market, the flower business requires an effective supply chain management through the plant growing process to the final marketing of cut flowers and potted flowers. In this research, the supply chain of the flower industry is constructed and a multi-objective mathematical model is developed to maximize the objectives of profit and customer satisfaction in the supply chain. The model assumes that in the flora supply chain the productivity, inventory, and delivery amount can be designed carefully to gain a maximum profit and fulfill the customer demands. Since customer demands are important parameters in the model, both ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and the rolling horizon (RH) approach are applied to forecast customer demands, and the control mechanism MPC (Model Predictive Control) is used to maintain the standard of customer satisfaction.
The proposed model is implemented using historical data, including cut flowers and potted flowers. The results show that in order to optimize the supply chain, there is no stock for seedlings and flowers and most of the stock out will be cut flowers for the domestic market.
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