| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 99 === In order to estimate the water supply system, many indices about water usage or deficit are calculated, and these indices are employed to describe the characteristic about the water shortage of the system. Shortage Index (SI) developed by Hydraulic Engineering Center of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a widely conventional index applied in Taiwan. However, it could not express the details about the water shortage events. For this reason, reliability, resiliency and vulnerability are used to represent how likely the system to fail, how quickly the system recovered from failure, and the scale of its damage, respectively. These criteria could be defined as Shortage Risk Indices, SRI, by being combined with the concept of risk management.
The Taiyuan system was tested as a case study. The result showed that different deficit tolerance levels had a close relationship with the release policy of the reservoir. For instance, if the tolerance level was set to 20%, then taking the first hedging step should be treated as a failure situation. But if the tolerance level was set to 30%, then taking the first hedging step would be recognized as a acceptable situation. In this case, the failure situation would be related to the second hedging step taken.
According to the results, the tolerance level us proposed to be set to 30% when concerning reliability, and it would reflect how likely the system to fail. And the tolerance level to be set to 20% when concerning resiliency to represent how quickly the system could work again.
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