Diffusion and forecast of mobile broadband and its impact on fixed Internet: An empirical study in Taiwan

• Main Author: 計弘達
• Other Authors: 林君信
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/08602464249018383614

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院管理科學學程 === 99 === There are many forecasting models which were developed and successfully predict the product diffusion of long lifecycle. There are a few forecasting models which were developed for predicting new products with short product lifecycle. Assumption of these models is the growth of products follows S-shape curve. As for the products which were just introduced to the market, it is very difficult to identify if they follow S-shape curve. We use Grey theory to predict the diffusion of mobile broadband and fixed Internet in Taiwan in this study. Grey theory can be used to predict the growth trend of new products which have very limited primitive data to identify the growth curves. On the other hand, penetration is an important indicator to predict the diffusion of mobile broadband and fixed Internet. We will use penetration to predict and indicate the diffusion in this study.