Forecasting Models for Books Collection in Public Library：case by Taking Taipei County

• Main Authors: Hsue, Yu-Lan, 許峪嵐
• Other Authors: Huang, Ming-Jiu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/24381727347581313584

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 資訊學院碩士在職專班數位圖書資訊組 === 99 === This research focuses on public library to analyze the example is cities in Taipei County. Adopting "time series model " estimates library loan amount and regression analysis with "Least Square " to estimate library stock, the theory of Reservoir Design uses to estimate library demand of stock. According to this establishes library real demand of stocks’ information of evaluation model to provide decisive consultation to library stocks’ distribution. Observed by the actual statistics，public library in Taipei County has urban-rural gap. Public library has related population density. This research follows time series to investigate explore, utilizing regression analysis mixes with population density parameter to provide suggestions for practical library’s evaluation model. Using "Least Square " and "Reservoir Design theory "estimates demand of stock in library which can be efficient to calculate between demand stock and stock flow in library. The result of the calculation will provide approximation and maximum demand. Library resources can be efficient to distribute which can be as explorative question in library operation. Using efficient library stock to allocate limited budget, furthermore, the budget can be executed and used in optimization condition. The research suggestive model can offer library staffs of decision maker the proportion of budget allocation to evaluate decisions and consultations and library resources reasonable foundation allocation for next year.