| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院科技管理學程 === 99 === Semiconductor industry is classified as "knowledge economy" with characteristics of being technology-intensive and highly innovative. The knowledge economy refers to the use of knowledge technologies such as knowledge engineering and knowledge managementto produce economic benefits. Patents play significant parts in knowledge economy; patents that involves core technologies are critical drivers that move the progress of semiconductor industry. With semiconductor material reaching physical dilemma, question that whether semiconductor industry can still move ahead following past fast growth pattern is worthwhile to be revisited. This research analyses four key patents of semiconductor technology which are HKMG, Strained Silicon, Nanolithography and TSV, and combines these analysis along with Logistic Model and Fisher-Pry Model to forecast the future development of semiconductor industry.
Based on the study, onclusions can be drawn as two main points. Point 1 is physical and material limitations will slow down the development of process node in semiconductor industry. However, growth pattern can then once again follow S curve with breakthrough of new material and process advancement. Point 2 is theoretical forecast that timeframe that advance node such as 65nm to 40nm technologies will be mature for use in mass production coincides with the timeframe that these technologies are actually applied in mass production. Therefore, the Logistic Model and Fisher-Pry Model are useful for technology forecast in semiconductor industry up to 40nm node..
Keywords: HKMG, Strained Silicon, Nanolithography, TSV, Logistic Growth Model, Fisher-Pry Growth Model, Patent Analysis
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