Risk Management on Tourism Demand: Sun Moon Lake at Central Mountain in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Meng-Gu Chen, 陳孟谷
• Other Authors: Tsorng-Chyi Hwang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/nkyh9a

博士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 99 === This study tries to model tourism demand and the volatility of tourists of Sun Moon Lake by comparing the difference to stochastic trend, seasonality, and volatility between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008. The variations risks in tourism demand predict between 1999~2003 and 2004~2008 with STSM. The long or short run risk persistence is illustrated by modeling the volatility tourism demand with GARCH model. Then the Value of Risk will be calculated according to the volatility from GARCH model. Finally, this study finds that if the administrator pursues a high risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient at less for 100 thousand tourists each month. If the administrator pursues a low risk development strategy, the public facilities should be sufficient for 200 thousand tourists each month. Besides, it is more important for local firms to control operational cost. In February and September, the firms could charge more for increasing revenue. In other months, the firms could just accept the tourists which have made an appointment. Finally, a sustained risk management system needs to be established to keep discovering the risk. This will help to improve the sustainable tourism development planning of Sun Moon Lake.