The Study on Building Construction Company Survival Warning Modeling-the Influence Event Analysis

• Main Authors: Pei Chen Chien, 簡沛溱
• Other Authors: Chiu Chin Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/27136238943114723843

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 地政研究所 === 99 === The goal of our study is establishing the survival model in the building construction companies during 1996-2008. The real estate developers in this study included “building construction companies” and the “property stock companies” which operate building construction businesses. Building construction companies are common known as a pivotal role in the power of influence by the general public, but the financial leverage is higher than other industries. Operating condition of construction companies is effected by the real estate cycle; in hence it is relative importance of the investers, banks, which the crisis events occurred. The crisis events in this study are not only the definition of Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan Economic Journal Data Bank but also the events besides financial side. The study of survival model, in the beginning, is to analyze the correlation of crisis events to understand the significance of events, quantify the classified of the entire crisis event, and then to compare the results between the Logistic Analysis and the Survival Analysis. Finally, choose the appropriate model and the more influence crisis events to do the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis results of our study are as follows: 1. The more the crisis events occurred, the more the probability of failure events will occur. 2. Our study classified the crisis events into three different species, financial side, supervision side, business side. We choose company delisting, full delivery stock company, and company emptied as the failure events. 3. Compare the correlation of survival period with survival probability. In terms of company reorganized variable, for example, after reorganizing the building construction company, the probability of failure events are getting higher, and the survival duration get shorter than other crisis events. 4. The real estate cycle impact the building construction companies a lot. If significant crisis events occurred during downturn of the real estate cycle, the failure events will be generated in such a short time.