Uncertainty Analysis and Influence of Carbon Tax on Enterprise Revenue–Using a Certain Firm as an Example

• Main Authors: Yung-Ching Fan, 范詠晴
• Other Authors: Tai-Yi Yu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87506603313804723621

碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 風險管理與保險學系碩士在職專班 === 99 === The global temperature continues to rise, causing major climate transitions worldwide. The primary reason of global climate change is excessive emissions of greenhouse gases, and the European Union is taking the first step to induce businesses to reduce carbon emission by implementing carbon tax. Starting in 2012, all civil aviation planes entering the EU will also be required to pay the carbon tax. Therefore, due to the potential influences caused by these actions, it is necessary to discuss the uncertainty and effect of carbon tax on our country’s business operation. This study focuses on a certain firm as the target of study and information such as emission of greenhouse gases, European carbon trading data and European currency exchange rate in 2005-2009 to calculate the total carbon tax and revenue of a certain enterprise. Monte Carlo Simulation method, available in the Crystal Ball software, was applied to estimate maximum potential losses. Furthermore, the calculation of carbon tax were compared to the research results provided by two associated domestic agencies and the carbon tax, operation profit, VaR (Value at Risk), CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) were also be calculated. The result showed that if the carbon tax price is the same with the European market price, the operation loss for 1% and 5%VaR is 474 and 443 (Unit: NT$ million); 483 and 462 for 1% and 5% CVaR. If carbon tax is 200 NT$/ton, then 1% and 5% VaR of operation loss is 500 and 475; 504 and 491 for 1% and 5% CVaR. If carbon tax is 2,000 NT$/ton, 1% and 5% VaR of operation loss is 414 and 383, respectively; 424 and 403 for 1% and 5% CVaR. Sensitivity analysis result demonstrated that if the carbon tax price is the same with the European market price, accounted contribution for operation profit was 99.4%, 0.5% for carbon tax and 0.1% for carbon emission 0.1%. If carbon tax is 200 NT/ton, accounted contribution for operation profit was 100% for operation profit and 0% for carbon emission. If carbon tax is 2,000 NT$/ton, the attributed contribution for operation profit is 99.4% and 0.6% for carbon emission. If the carbon tax price is the European market price or NTD 2,000 NT$/ton, and the annual earning is lower than expected, carbon tax will indeed cause serious effects in the business’s profit earning. This research utilized Monte Carlo manner to simulate carbon tax and operation profit instead of considering emission of greenhouse gas emission in past studies; and provided uncertainty analysis with objective quantified data to business policy makers.