The Simulation Study on Set-aside in Taiwan

• Main Author: 鄭偉德
• Other Authors: 李元和
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28361316212304076267

碩士 === 佛光大學 === 經濟學系 === 99 === Rice production has a close connection with set-aside in Taiwan. The purpose of set-aside is to reduce rice production and cease for planting in paddy field temporarily. However, if the areas of set-aside once expand to almost equal the areas of rice cultivated, it is necessary to evaluate the policy of set-aside from resource allocation perspectively. In addition, it is also need to examine the variation trend of rice productivity and roles of rice industry on farm revenue and rural economy. Recently, total rice cultivated areas shows a decline year by year in Taiwan. But, the number of small plot is increasing gradually. We find that the larger scale of cultivated area, the higher in efficiency. No matter the first crop or second crop of rice, it showed the same results. Therefore, it is no use to increase the number of small plot on productivity index of whole rice industry but also impact on the average income of per household. When controlling for endogenous structural breaks, the long-run equilibrium relationship for the productivity of the agricultural land model is still supported. From the short-run error correction model estimation, it is found that public investment in agriculture is a major means of adjusting for the disequilibria that occur within the system. In the short run, the unidirectional causal relationship in terms of the productivity of agricultural land on public investment in agriculture is established, otherwise it is not established. The government is unable to reveal the effectiveness of its public investment in agriculture in the short run. There are four counties in this project. Time period is 16 years from1994 to 2009. There are 319,357 plots and the areas of set-aside are 54940.67 hectare on the first crop every year. There are 375,151 plots and the areas of set-aside are 64,502.84 hectare on the second crop every year. The ratio of set-aside areas on both the first crop and the second crop to rice cultivated areas is more than 25%. This indicates that policy of set-aside has caused some issues in rice industry. Thus, we should estimate the ratio of set-aside area to rice cultivated area on simulating of subsidy on set-aside in the future. To promote the policy of small landlord and big tenant, the first priority is to guide those plots of usual set-aside into reduce set-aside frequency and make criteria in order to achieve utilization rate and productivity.