The Prediction Analysis of the Impact of theDeclining Birth Rate on the Tourist Population

• Main Authors: Yih-Chu Wang, 王益初
• Other Authors: Tzong-Shyung Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36369252969006683456

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 休閒事業管理系碩士班 === 99 === Theme parks play an important role in the tourism industry. They not only facilitate a vibrant local economy, but they also promote tourism and its related industries such as transportation, food and beverage and hotel business. The domestic tourism industry has once been very prosperous. With the new entrepreneurs joining in the theme park business, instead of increasing, the tourist population actually decreases. A research by the government has shown that the major visitors to the theme parks are adolescents and young adults. Taking a look at the population structure, our country and other advanced countries are all facing the threat of the declining birthrate. According to a statistic, the population of 12-24-year-old has reduced 904,984 people from 1980 to 2009. The demographic changes may result in the major factors in determining the number of theme park visitors. The study applies the SHAZAM Software and uses Flexible Least Squares (FLS) to establish a prediction model for estimating the number of theme park visitors. The result estimates that the tourist population will reduce approximately 1,250,000 people in the five years from 2012 to 2016. The study also hypothesizes that Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross National Product (GNP) are cross impact factors. By comparison and estimation, it reveals that the higher the annual rate of GNP grows, the higher the estimated values of the tourist numbers will be obtained. An increase of the annual growth rate of CPI will also result in the reduction of the tourist population. Unless the economic growth rate maintains high, and the Consumer Price Index is retrained, the tourist population of theme park will gradually reduce year by year due to the declining birthrate.