Modeling and Evaluation on Generation System Reliability of TaiwanModeling and Evaluation on Generation System Reliability of Taiwan

• Main Authors: Jia-Hao Lin, 林家豪
• Other Authors: Shi-Lin Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/23621408229338801174

碩士 === 中原大學 === 電機工程研究所 === 99 === The analysis of generation system reliability aims to ensure that the generation system capacity is sufficient to meet load demand and can fulfill the system reliability requirement. In the evaluation process, the maintenance, the generator forced outage rate, and the random fluctuation of load must be considered. The purpose of the thesis is to build the evaluation model and simulation software where the outage capacity and load are simulated as two types of mutually independent random variables so to implement convolution for the simulation. This simulation uses year 2009 as base year and refers to the “Taipower 9806 Long-Term Power Development Plan”. The simulation results include: the annual loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy(EUE) all from 2015 to 2025. The hydropower and wind generators are simulated their history generation data; by the method simulated of Block Shift, by referring to nuclear and thermal generating units are simulated through convolution as started above. The simulation model built in this study is also used for the sensitivity analysis of load to evaluate the impact of load change on the reliability and the production cost of generation system for each hour in this paper. A case study on Taiwan Power System’s 2015 network is presented in this thesis.