| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際貿易研究所 === 99 === The research uses seasonal data to discuss the relationships of the Taiwan’s import, export and economic growth among Asia (Japan, Mainland), American (US, South America) and Europe. The empirical methods include the ADF unit roots test, the Johansen cointegration test, the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Granger causality test.
In evidence, the Johansen cointegration test shows that the rate of Taiwan economic growth, the Global import growth rate, the Global export growth rate, the USA’s import growth rate, the USA’s export growth rate, the Japanese import growth rate, the Japanese export growth rate, the European import growth rate, the European export growth rate, the South American import growth rate, the South American export growth rate, the Chinese import growth rate and the Chinese export growth rate exist a long-run stable equilibrium relationship. The empirical results from the VECM show that the change of economic growth leads the change of trading. It means trading is affected by the economic growth in Taiwan. Finally, the Granger causality test proves that there is a bidirectional feedback causality exists between Taiwan trading and economic growth in China, Japan, USA, Europe, and South America.
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