| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 工業與系統工程研究所 === 99 === With the trend of globalization, large-scale influenza outbreaks in recent years such as 2005 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu have greatly impacted the world’s health and medical system. Although the governments are now more experienced on diseases prevention than past did, however, to estimate the epidemic accurately and develop appropriate prevention policy is still a necessary and essential duty for the future potential threats.
In this study, a transmission disease model with compartmental model of epidemiology and system dynamics was, established with also considering asymptomatic infections situation. According to data of 2009 (H1N1) epidemic in Taiwan, the validated results of this study showed effectiveness of the built model. The scenario analyses indicated infectious diseases and contact rate might change the system behavior. If we can control and vaccination in the early stages of outbreak, the epidemic will be effectively controlled. Furthermore, this model is also applicable to other infectious diseases by applying the appropriate model parameters.
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