| Summary: | 碩士 === 中央警察大學 === 消防科學研究所 === 99 === Abstract
This research focuses on developing “the fire and smoke growth model” to
simulate the time to the untenable conditions, including smoke layer temperature,
visibility, carbon monoxide concentration, fractional incapacitating dose, and
radiation heat flux in a room with less than 200 square meters, and building “the
egress behavior model” to simulate an individual required safety egress time in a
room. Moreover, reliability-based design and structure function are incorporated into
above mentioned models to construct ”the assessment model of egress failure in a
room fire.”
After the model construction, the input parameters and the probability
distributions are assumed. Random numbers of parameters are generated by Monte
Carlo simulation. After several simulations, the failure probability of an individual
egress due to any one of untenable conditions is obtained. Furthermore, random
samples are generated by Bernoulli trials, then the estimate of the failure probability
of egress system and confidence interval are constructed.
Finally, a commercial premises is taken as an example. Under the conditions of
identical room area, room height, and without smoke exhaust equipment, four
experimental samples are categoried by considering with/without the automatic fire
alarm equipments or with/without resrtriction on the number of occupant
accommodation.
To conclude, in order to reduce the failure probability of an individual fails to
evacuate due to untenable conditions and the estimate of the failure probability of
egress system. Research results show that the resrtriction on the number of occupant
accommodation is more effective than installation of the automatic fire alarm
equipments.
Keywords: the fire and smoke growth model, the time to the untenable conditions,
Monte Carlo simulation method.
|
|---|
