| Summary: | 碩士 === 長庚大學 === 資訊工程學系 === 99 === Since the prevalence of influenza causes loss of human resources, it is necessary to research the spread of influence. In this thesis, I proposed an epidemiological model to simulate the trend of influenza transmitted among people in Taiwan, and to compare intervention efficiency of different public health policies. In the model, the concept of bipartite graph and social mirror identity are adopted to construct the daily contact network. Besides social network topology is constructed in each of the Taiwan twenty-two counties to closely fit real social activity in Taiwan, and the statistical data of Taiwan traffic flow and population among the counties is also used in the proposed model.
From the experimental results of anti-virus medicament and vaccine, I found that (1) the more healthy people receive vaccine or (2) the more infected people receive anti-virus medicament, the higher probability that the number of infected people decreased. In addition, if there is only one county having infected people, medical resources can be largely saved by giving the anti-virus medicament and vaccine to this county and neighboring counties instead of all the counties. Moreover, blockade policy adopted in the county containing the first infected person helps to delay the influenza outbreak time in Taiwan, and the longer blockaded of the county, the longer delaying time of the outbreak. I hope the results could provide decision reference of public health policy about influenza for the government and decision-making officers.
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