The Simulation and Co-benefits of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Reduction for Transportation Sector in Taiwan by System Dynamic Model STELLA

• Main Authors: Chi-Kuan Chen, 陳志寬
• Other Authors: 曾昭衡
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5rf63a

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 環境工程與管理研究所 === 98 === This study shows that the author used system dynamics software STELLA to construct the transportation sector in Taiwan to execute the carbon reduction and mobile source control policies for greenhouse gas and air pollutants (carbon monoxide (CO), suspended particulate (PM10), sulfur oxides (SOx) , nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone(O3) emissions reduction. This study compared the policies independently and jointly implements the reductions after the difference by the system dynamics model, then used the Air Resources Co-Benefits, ARCoB model to evaluate the health benefits by reduction of the operation, including increasing the average life and save the amount of medical expenses. The results showed that it has the best result to have stricter vehicle emission standards and control of oil content when the reduction operations are not integrated (independently). Estimating to year 2025, if "the complete implementation of the simulated scenario" is applied, the air pollutants PM10, SOX, NOX, CO and NMHC will be reduced around 516, 361, 28,527, 137,046 and 18,139 tons per year. The optimum Greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy continue to promote high-speed railway construction, if "the complete implementation of the simulated scenario" is applied in 2025, the GHG will be reduced 6,137 thousand tons per year and the reduction rate is 11.63%. The cost-benefit analysis for public that the promotion of clean vehicles by EPA to promote the full replacement cab LPG vehicles (business cars) has the best cost-benefit ratio to 16.34 in 2025, and the external benefits for society as a whole could save 9,514,787 thousand NT$ of medical expenses, but also to enhance the average life 27.51 days of public. The cost-benefits ratio of LPG vehicle replacement personal car and electric motor vehicles for personal use is 5.08 and 1.46. Price of hybrid vehicles due to high cost of investment is much higher than its economic benefits, so its cost-benefits ratio is only 0.46. Comprehensive integration of the reduction operations (joint implementation), in 2025, the air pollutants PM10, SOX, NOX, CO and NMHC will be reduced 2,761, 502, 31,050, 172,374 and 33,630 tons per year, and GHG will be reduced 14,469 thousand tons per year, and without integration (independently) to 2025, air pollutants PM10, SOX, NOX, CO and NMHC will be reduced 2,957, 529, 35,005, 211,522 and 40,815 tons per year, the GHG will be reduced 15,237 thousand tons per year. In accordance with the "Energy Continuity Guidelines" set by the reduction target, greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in 2016 and 2020, if the "major policy commitment scenario" and "complete implementation of the simulated scenario" are applied, GHG emissions could go back to 39,058 thousand tons per year in 2008.