| Summary: | 博士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 工商管理研究所 === 98 === Forecasting is one of the crucial factors in practical application since it ensures the effective allocation of capacity and proper amount of inventory. Since auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models which are more suitable for linear data have their constraints in predicting complex data for the real-world problems, some approaches have been developed to conquer the challenge of nonlinear forecasting. Therefore, for the purpose of forecasting nonlinear data, this study intends to develop three integrated evolutionary computation (EC)-based algorithms for training radial basis function neural network (RBFnn). The EC-based algorithms include genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and artificial immune system (AIS).
In order to verify these three developed integrated EC-based algorithms, three benchmark continuous test functions were employed. The experimental results of three integrated EC-based algorithms are really very promising. In addition, industrial personal computer (IPC) sales data provided by an international well-known IPC manufacturer in Taiwan is also applied to further assess these developed algorithms. The model evaluation results indicated that the developed algorithms really can forecast more accurately. Furthermore, if foreign exchange (FX) factor is considered, the forecasting results can be improved.
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