A Prototype in Simulating a Bus Routing Time

• Main Author: 李政諺
• Other Authors: 許玟斌
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20728311830489680999

碩士 === 東海大學 === 資訊工程學系 === 98 === It has been the continuous efforts for the bus companies to lower the cost of the fuel. The following efforts are very common to see: to avoid unnecessary schedules of service to the passengers, to organize a more efficient dispatching plan on the routes, and to change the driver’s driving habits, etc. Among all the methods, the most efficient one is to adjust the intervals of services for each route. Currently, the bus companies adjust the schedules and intervals based on their experiences.They adjust the dispatch intervals according to peak and off hours. Even the experience could produce reliable results to some extent, the effect of the adjustment to either the passengers or to the company itself has never been analyzed by a scientific method. There had been many documentations on the research of the intervals and dispatches.They were mainly based on the adjustment of single interval or multi-intervals, or focused on maximizing the benefits to the company or the preferences of the passengers. However, there has not been much discussion on the impact of the adjustments to the travel time. This thesis will focus on using Simulations System as an approach to simulate the travel time of the bus. It can be used as a reference in the future for the bus companies when they are making the dispatching plan. This study includes six steps. The definition of the study scope, the establishment of traffic patterns, data collection, parameter estimation, the analysis of the experimental results, conclusions and recommendations. It ignored variables such as competitors. We created a traffic model and then collected the actual number of the passenger flows from 13 major bus stations and also the travel time between stations, etc. And we then input all the data into the ProModel and simulate it. The result of the experiment was as followings. The average total travel time was 94.43 minutes with a deviation of 5.35 minutes, which matched with the data actually collected. Therefore, we can prove the high credibility of this traffic simulation model and assure that the model could be used for future references for the bus companies.