The Impact of Demographic Changing on Risk Premiums of Stock Markets – Evidence from International Data

• Main Authors: Wei-Tai Chen, 陳威臺
• Other Authors: Jen-Hung Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19492496553034299406

碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 98 === According to the population division of United nation, in 2009, the world’s over 65 year senior have reached 7%, which is defined the aged society. The old-age support ratio fell from 12 persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or over in 1950 to 9 in 2009 and is projected to fall to 4 persons of working age per person aged 65 or over in 2050. Hence, facing the demographical trend, we examine the link between demographic changes and economical variables including risk premiums and scale of stock and saving rate using 21 countries sample from 1992 to 2008. About this research of topical subject, there are two important theories. The first is life-cycle risk aversion hypothesis, the second theory is asset market meltdown. The finding is that average age and over 65 year senior ratio have significantly negative effect on stocks market, the old and young age dependency ratio have significantly negative effect on saving rate. In conclusion, the result of evidence tend to support asset market meltdown theory.