| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 經濟學系 === 98 === This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the social security and the government finance in Taiwan during 1999 to 2009 with vector autoregressive (VAR) model.
We control for the seasonal factor and the price index in empirical VAR model. The VAR model shows that the social security expenditure is the positive relationship with the government finance, but the crowding-out effect to the economic development budget. Moreover, the social security is also affected by the national defense budget. According to the Granger causality test, we find that the interaction effect and the causality relationship between the social security expenditure and the government finance. The social security disbursement also has the“lead-lag”relationship with other budgets. By the impact-response analysis, the responses of the government finance as well as other budgets to the social security spending innovation are obviously except the national defense government affairs budget, because of the national security question. The variance decomposition analysis of the government finance is explained mostly by itself and the social security, expressed that increasing rapidly social security benefits has impacted to the government finance.
The positive relationship between the social security and the government finance is caused by part of the social security expenditure inflow to government tax revenue. Another empirical result shows that the population aging has remarkable influence to the social security expenditure and such influence will strengthen with the time span. So, in the long run, we had to worry about the population aging problem generating financing imbalance.
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