An Integrated Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for Major Construction Accidents Using Fuzzy Concepts and Influence Diagram

• Main Authors: Chen-Chung Lin, 林楨中
• Other Authors: Yong-Huang Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/99475749361870575215

博士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 營建工程系 === 98 === Construction work is hazardous work because the construction site is an open, unique and complex system. The losses caused by major construction accidents may bring serious financial impacts to construction enterprises. Accident analysis (post-accident) and quantitative risk analysis (pre-accident) is essential to accident risk management and safety economic evaluation. The first part of this paper is to collect major accident reports from 2000 to 2008 (1437 cases) for data coding and digitalization. By adopting information technology to develop an accident analysis information platform, this research can achieve the analysis of historical major accidents. The second part of this paper is to develop a novel risk quantification methodology. Based on expert judgment, this paper applies accident-causation theory, influence diagrams and fuzzy theory to develop a quantitative method for accident risk analysis. The present method may assist enterprises to analyze the quantitative risk of construction accidents, the influence of safety factors and the cost-benefit of safety investment decisions. As an illustrative example, the quantitative risk analysis of a major accident that may happen when construction is shown by the application of a modularized computing language.