The Potential Analysis of the Sustainable Energy Development in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ching-Hui Liao, 廖卿惠
• Other Authors: 於幼華
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/52388689999010409868

博士 === 臺灣大學 === 環境工程學研究所 === 98 === Owing to the specific geometric feature and the high population density in Taiwan, the nature resource such as fossil energy is quite of deficiency. According to the energy balance table published in 2008, the self-produced ratio of preliminary energy in Taiwan is only 0.70% and it is only 3.81% for the electricity. The dependence of energy demand on the imported energy is at an extremely unbalanced situation. Therefore, it is definitely necessary and no-regretful for the overall development on the renewable energy in Taiwan in terms of the efficiency of energy self-supply and energy safety. However, it is important to consider if the conditions and environment in Taiwan are suitable for the development of renewable energy as the sustainable energy. Taking the main energy market, the electricity market, as an example, this study attempted to use an energy programming model, EnergyPLAN, to investigate the possibility and requirement for Taiwan to compressively develop the renewable energy. Four scenarios were simulated using 2025 as the reference year: 1. Energy saving-To reduce 10% of the overall electricity demand. 2. Efficiency enhancing: To enhance the efficiency of overall electricity system to 80%. 3. To enhance the developed rate of renewable energy reserves from 30.8% to 60%. 4. To combine the results of scenarios 1-3. Our results shows that for the sustainable energy development in Taiwan, the best instrument is to enhance the electricity efficiency, then to reduce the energy demand, and at last to develop the renewable energy. Even all of the renewable energy is developed, its share of the installed capacity in 2025 can be only 34.43%, which enhances the energy self-supply and safety in Taiwan but still hardlymatch the demand. The occupation of energy consumption relying on the fossil energy is still as high as 67.2-78.5% though. The results also revealed that the issue of distribution system can’t be neglected in addition to the power supply of electricity system in Taiwan. Moreover, the development of the net energy and environmental cost analysis should be concerned as economic costs for avoiding unnecessary social costs. Based on the relatively well-developed system of wind energy in Taiwan, we analyzed the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and the CO2 emission in the life cycle to reveal that the sorted considerations should be. The results exhibit that the performance of the wind power iii systems in Taiwan is comparative to the international ones, but the EROIs can be still enhanced via improving the low efficiency of electricity system Several policy suggestions were recommended as followings: 1. To establish the energy supply system with low energy loss and high performance efficiency. 2. To develop the distributed energy technology. 3. To adapt applicable energy policy measures in every single process. 4. To approach the objective of the net energy as the basic concept for energy incentive/susidies instruments.