Price Risk Analysis of Taiwan''s Vegetable Wholesale Market

• Main Authors: Chang-Lung Lee, 李昌隆
• Other Authors: 張靜貞
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09394665555182684272

碩士 === 臺灣大學 === 農業經濟學研究所 === 98 === Variation of market price induces risk in market transactions. In order to understand the formation of price risk in the marketing channels, this study adopts the model developed by Barrett and Luseno (2004) which is based on the analysis of variances and co-variances. The producer price risk is decomposed into 4 parts: 1) information/institutional risk- risk related to price negotiation power of producers, 2) local market risk- risk related to local market size, 3) basic risk- risk related to marketing channel efficiency, and 4) terminal market risk- risk related to the variability and thickness of the terminal market. Next, the model is modified to study the price risk formation in the vegetable marketing channels of Taiwan based on the daily wholesale price data of 10 major vegetables over the period 2007-2009. By comparisons of the producer price risk compositions between different marketing segments, adjustment strategies in order to balance the market demand and supply are proposed. Goals to stabilize market price and to reduce the risk faced by producers and consumers can thus be achieved simultaneously. Finally, policy recommendations are provided to the policy makers in preparing short-, medium-, long-term strategies for the agricultural structural adjustment.