Construction of Double Quantile Regression Model －－Revisit the Relationship between CO2 and Economic Development

• Main Authors: Hung-Yi Chang, 張弘毅
• Other Authors: Pei-Ing Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/94422507837034259502

碩士 === 臺灣大學 === 農業經濟學研究所 === 98 === The purpose of this paper is to construct a double quantile regressions model to simultaneously take into account different levels of CO2 emissions and different levels of economic development for each country. One of the quantile regressions accounts for the division of CO2 emissions per capita annually. The other quantile regression justifies the degree of economic development with representation of national income per capita per year(GDP) A set of data with 104 countries in 1990-2005 is used for such purpose. Due to the use of panel data, variables of meta-technical ratio of each country in different years are estimated to reflect the time and country fixed effect to replace the traditional fixed-effect model to have better performance in catching the time-invariant factors. Estimated results show that, countries for all levels of economic developments and for different levels of CO2 the relationships between GDP per capita and CO2 emission per person are positive. That is, for either group of the country there is no inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emission per person. In addition, as with the change of GDP per capita to the change of CO2 emission per person, the resultes estimated from double quantile regression are closed to the data computed from the original data. Furthermore, every 1% increase of GDP for country with low economic development, there is higher percentage increase of CO2 emission. On the contrary, every 1% increase of GDP for country with high economic development, the percentage increase of CO2 is lower. However, countries with different levels of economic development weigh and view differently for every 1% increase of GDP. Since the absolute increase of CO2 emissions is higher for low income country than that for high income country it reinforces the conflict between the development of economy for low income country and the control of CO2 emissions. This will then require much more efforts to release the tension and pressure for corporative elimination of CO2 emissions between high income countries and low income countries.