| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 98 === Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to explore the correlation between Saving Ratio and Macroeconomic Variables. The government aims to achieve sustainable economics growth and development. Savings is the main factor to stimulate economic growth, and the factor to affect saving ratio is also worthy of our concern. We attempt to examine the coefficient of savings ratio and all macroeconomic variables, investigate the reason of lead-lag relation and the reason to affect saving ratio of Taiwan and macroeconomic variables.
On the basis of research mechanism, first, examine the causation of saving ratio and macroeconomic variables. Second, verify the interaction by using VAR module. Lastly, examine affects on saving ratio and other macroeconomic variables by using regression analysis. The empirical model is derived from quantitative method such as Unit Root Test, Correlation Analysis, Granger Causality Test and Vector Auto-regression Model.
Following conclusions can be drawn from empirical result:
1.Interaction between macroeconomic variables and saving rate
(1)In Taiwan, the two-way causality of saving ratio among the macroeconomic variables includes: leading indicator, M1B, M2, CPI, GDP and unemployment rate; In addition, saving ratio is only one-way causality to exchange rates, namely, exchange rate takes the lead in saving ratio.
(2)In the lead-lag relation among saving ratio and other macroeconomic variables, the results of VAR model based on M2 variable are:
-Saving ratio one-way leads to M2
-GDP and unemployment rate one-way lead to saving ratio
-There is no apparent causality between saving ratio and leading indicator and CPI
-Saving ratio is two-way causality to exchange rates and stock index
The results of VAR model based on M1B variable are:
-Saving ratio one-way leads to leading indicator
-M1B, CPI, Exchange Rates and unemployment rate one-way leads to saving ratio
-There is no apparent causality between saving ratio and stock index
-Saving ratio is two-way causality to GDP
The results of lead-lag analysis of saving ratio and other variables based on M1B and M2 variable are not all the same. The only identical result is unemployment rate one-way leads to saving ratio.
2.Factors of Macroeconomics Variables affect Saving Ratio
(1)Saving ratio has a positive impact on leading indicator, M1B, M2, GDP,
unemployment rate and Q2 & Q3 seasonal factor. Among these factors,
-The growth of M1B and M2 will cause a rise in saving ratio. It reflects that loose monetary policy boosts saving ratio.
-the growth of GDP will also boost the higher saving rate. The phenomenon reflects the economic turnaround. More personal disposal income and consumption attitude remained will also boost saving ratio.
-Additionally, higher unemployment rate will cause higher saving rate. It shows the rise of uncertainty in future, the rise of saving while the unemployment rate rose.
-Saving ratio has a positive impact on Q2 and Q3 seasonal factor. It reflects higher demand on New Year period and the residual funds will deposit back in Q2.
(2)Saving ratio has a negative impact on self-delay. It shows that saving ratio
has time lags and one period of time delay reflects on saving ratio.
(3)Saving ratio has a negative impact on Q1 seasonal factor. It reflects higher
demand on New Year period and decrease in saving rate.
(4)There is no correlation between saving rate to CPI, Stock Index and exchange
Rate.
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