The Relationship between Monthly Sales and the Macroeconomy of Formosa Plastics Co.

• Main Authors: Chia-Wei Hsieh, 謝佳維
• Other Authors: 謝德宗
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54070681078081205087

碩士 === 臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 98 === The relationship between the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. and macroeconomy data is very close. This study focus on investigating causal relationship and interaction among international oil price、heavy industry manufacturing production index 、foreign exchange rate、the balance of M2 and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co.. The frame structure of this study, first, we examine the causality relationship among international oil price、heavy industry manufacturing production index 、foreign exchange rate、the balance of M2 and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. ; second, we test the interaction among international oil price、heavy industry manufacturing production index、foreign exchange rate、the balance of M2 and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co.; ultimately we use regression to examine effects on international oil price、heavy industry manufacturing production index、foreign exchange rate、the balance of M2 and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co.. In this study, the empirical model is derived from the quantitative methods such as Unit Root Test, Granger Causality Test, Vector Autoregression Model and Cointegration Test. Following conclusions can be drawn from this empirical results: 1.It is significant evidence that the international oil price、heavy industry manufacturing production index、foreign exchange rate、the balance of M2 and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. have cointegration relationship. From the cointegration test result, it also reveals the equilibrium do exists among the five variables in the long term. 2.The oil price of current and prior period have significant positive effects on the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. It means that when the oil price goes up, the hedge strategies of purchasing oil and the cost transferring to down stream vendors of the Formosa Plastics Co. will succeed. As a result, although in the high cost of oil price environment, the Formosa Plastics Co can still have positive effects. 3.The heavy industry manufacturing production index has positive effects on the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. and this index represents the in time indicator of economic cycle. From this point of view, it can also prove that economic cycle has significant impact on the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. 4.The monthly sales in afterward period of Formosa Plastics Co. has negative effects on the monthly sales itself. It reveals that the monthly sales in the prior and afterward period have significant negative effects during smooth year. 5.The balance of M2 lagging for three terms has significant positive effects on the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co.. Due to the balance of M2 is leading indicator and the monthly sales of Formosa Plastics Co. likes in time indicator. As result, the balance of M2 lagging for three terms has positive extend effects.