A Research for the Factors of Nonperforming Mortgages in Taiwan

• Main Authors: CHOU,CHUN-MINE, 周俊民
• Other Authors: Chih, Hsiang-Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/69979871968834947351

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 98 === For a long time, the mortgage is one of the stable profit factors and lower credit risks for the financial institutions in Taiwan. As the mortgage occupies the highest proportion of various consumptive loan services for Taiwan financial institutions, the revenues of the Taiwan financial institutions is significantly related to the proportion of overdue mortgages. Moreover, recent public opinions continue to reflect rising house prices and the departure between house prices and the market value. To prevent the housing market bubble, the Central Bank strictly enforces the policy guidance to the banks and restricts the loan terms on luxury house products and housing investors, such as increasing loan rates, reducing the credit lines of mortgages, cancelling the grace periods, and it may have a great effect for mortgage business of Taiwan financial institutions in the future. This research studies the various mortgaged credit factors affecting mortgaged default risks for different areas in Taiwan by logistic regression model. The credit factors include the targets, housing investors and the mansion (high total price house), which Central Bank strictly requests the restriction of the loan terms. Simultaneously, this research examines and tests the strategies such as increasing loan rates, reducing the credit lines of mortgages, cancelling the grace periods, adopted by Central Bank. Based on the overdue mortgaged data files during 1991 to 2009 December 31 from one Taiwan financial institution established in 1991, 95,442 cases were initially identified the study samples. After eliminated the duplicate persons and insufficient information, the 46,236 cases were selected as samples in this research. The results yielded by the analysis are as follows: 1. The major significant credited variables of mortgaged business in Taiwan overall areas are the interest rates, initial credit lines, the sex, whether to have the grace periods and whether to have the guarantors. 2. The major significant credited variables of mortgaged business in Taipei city are initial credit lines and whether to have the grace periods. 3. The major significant credited variables of mortgaged business in Taiwan north areas excluding Taipei city are the interest rates, initial credit lines, initial credit amounts and whether to have the grace periods. 4. The major significant credited variables of mortgaged business in Taiwan central areas are the interest rates, the sex and whether to have the grace periods. 5. The major significant credited variables of mortgaged business in Taiwan south areas are the interest rates, initial credit lines, the position, whether to have the grace periods and whether to have the guarantors. 6. Under strict mortgaged policies regulated by Central Bank, whether to have the grace periods is the most significant credited variables for Taiwan mortgaged business. In addition, after the real diagnosis, there is no significantly correlation between borrowers as the housing investors and mortgaged business. As a result, it is suggested that the financial institutions have to establish the mortgaged file system covering all of the settled and rejected cases in the past for the further inquiries and researches. At the same time, the financial institutions have to establish the credited system regularly screening the credited variable significantly affecting the results of success or failure mortgaged cases for the basis of the adjusting credited policies.