| Summary: | 博士 === 國立臺北大學 === 自然資源與環境管理研究所 === 98 === Taiwan is a densely populated island country with only limited natural resources. Taiwan's dependence on imported energy was over 99% with large proportion of fossil fuel for a long time. However, with a great deal use of fossil fuels, they produced air pollutants such as sulfide (SOx), total suspended particles (TSP) as well as greenhouse gas emission (GHG). Energy input is an essensial factor for economic production. Energy exploitation and use makes negative impacts to environment. Evidently, energy is an important factor for sustainable development.
This study attempted to incorporate energy factor with economic production model. We first adopt the LINear EXponential (LINEX) production function to analyze the relationship among sectoral product and factors of labor, capital, and exergy. As to compare the ‘performance’ of exergy utilization among the EU-27 States and Taiwan, we applied the technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to construct the efficiency frontier of exergy productivity. Moreover, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to analyze renewable energy in order to abtain emission factor. Meanwhile, final energy consumption, emission factors and economic products were used to evaluate air pollution and GHG emission. Finally, we created a system dynamic model (Threshold 21, T21) incorporates the links among energy, society, the economy and environment as one of its major innovations to better analyze prospects of addressing energy constraints.
The base scenario generated by the T21 model shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of industry and service sector are increasing in the future while agriculture sector decreasing. Total GDP is reaching 17.22 trillion in 2020. As a result, TSP, SOx and CO2 emissions are 74 ten thousand tons, 53 ten thousand tons, and 425 million tons, respectively.
Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating show that optimal scenario is major reductions in CO2 emissions. To compare with the base scenario, total GDP increased 6.34% while exergy input was 2.22% decreased. On another hand, CO2 emission reached 409 million tons. TSP and SOx emissions cut 1.59% and 4.42% down, respectively.
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