Analyses of Fleet Developments and Growth Trends among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ying-Chen Hsu, 徐穎珍
• Other Authors: Cheng-Chi Chung
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11182161670890715831

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 98 === The development of shipping is deeply related to global economic prosperity or adversity. This study starts with the supply side of vessels by using the latest fifteen years statistics from the institute of shipping economics and logistics (ISL) to analyze current developments of bulk ship fleets and containership fleets among China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the GM(1,1) Model of Grey theory is adopted to analyze growth trends of ship fleets, and the Recursive Residual GM(1,1) is also applied to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Finally, the accuracy is compared with exponential smoothing. The results show as below: 1.As to bulk carriers, the numbers and deadweight tonnages of vessels are increasing not only in the world, but also among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the past few years. Second, the ratio of flagging-out is increasing in China, Taiwan and the world except for Hong Kong, where is advantaged by their tonnage tax, as the ratio is only 36.76%. Third, ship ages of national vessels in China and foreign vessels in both China and Hong Kong are higher than world average. Finally, the bulk tonnages will be enlarged in China to 69,350,000 DWT and Taiwan to 20,132,000 DWT, but reduced in Hong Kong to 11,579,000 DWT in terms of the growth trend in the coming three years on the premise that there is not a dynamic context of global economic. 2.As to containerships, the numbers and capacities of vessels are increasing not only in the world, but also among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the past few years. Second, the ratio of flagging-out is increasing in China, Taiwan and the world except for Hong Kong, where is advantaged by their tonnage tax, as the ratio is only 8.55%. Third, the containerships ages in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are higher than world average. Finally, the containership capacities will be enlarged in China to 971,000 TEUs and Taiwan to 748,000 TEUs, but reduced in Hong Kong to 103,000 TEUs in terms of the growth trend in the coming three years on the premise that there is not a dynamic context of global economic. These findings will assist shipping corporations in making operational strategies, and government authorities in formulating supportive shipping policies.