| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 企業管理學系研究所 === 98 === Since the floating exchange rate regime was set up in 1973, the issue of exchange rate has been concerned not only by corporate organizations but also folks. For multinational corporate institutions, exchange rate plays an important role in their profit. For folks, exchange rate influences the cost of going abroad. What’s more, it is also one of investment tool for making profits.
There are many empirical researches attesting that the term structure can forecast economic growth, and the exchange rate can be predicted by economic growth. However, no researches have shown the direct relationship between the term structure and the exchange rate. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to examine whether the term structure can predict the exchange rate or not, and then to us this result to compare with the empirical result in which many researches claim that the real long term interest rate can predict the exchange rate very well. In the final step, we use the method of out of sample test to examine our model and random work model to make our examination more robust.
In conclusion, our empirical research attests that the relationship between the term structure and the exchange rate is significantly negative. This result also shows that the ability of our model’s prediction is better than that of others.
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