The relationship among between unemploymentrate and macroeconomic factor in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chen Mine, 陳明良
• Other Authors: Yu Shan Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/82110450271972971683

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 金融所 === 98 === Labor productivity is a key to economic growth. The unemployment rate in Taiwan has kept rising for ten years, which becomes an urgent issue for the government to push economic growth and researchers to consider its relation with economic development. This research aims at investigating the unemployment rate, real GDP, customer price index and money supply in Taiwan during Quarter 1 of 2000 to Quarter 2 of 2009. On the basis of the vector error correction model, this research shows that real GDP has great negative influence on the unemployment rate in the short term. That is, short-term recession may raise the rate of unemployment. Real GDP and money supply are mutual beneficial, so they are dependent on each other. The impulse response model shows that money supply has steadily negative effect on the unemployment rate, and the effect gets stronger step by step. Through variance decomposition, real GDP and customer price index have the highest exogenousness, which is different from the exogenousness of the unemployment but can be realized by other variables. On the whole, unemployment is significant to labor productivity and short-term currency policy indeed restrains economic overheating or stimulates economic recovery. Therefore, currency policy can be used to lower the unemployment rate, which may be an importance reference for governments.