| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防大學管理學院 === 運籌管理學系 === 98 === As the growing demand for the functional performance of weapons systems in the modern national defense, the high-tech weapons systems are getting more complex and difficult to maintain supportability and availability. Therefore, the integrated logistics support has become the core in the modern weapons systems development. The current RAM (Reliability, Availability and Maintainability) analysis ignored the impact of dynamic relationship among the vertical WBS (work breakdown structure) and the potential risks over system life on the availability and maintenance efficiency of a weapon system. As a result, there is often a serious gap between the predicted demand and the actual needs, which usually leads to lack or waste of resources in the system maintenance. The ob-jective of the thesis research is to improve the current RAM analysis. The sys-tem dynamics models were constructed to simulate the dynamic interactions between the vertical WBS of the weapons systems and to analyze their effects on system availability. Moreover, the risks of total system life cycle were evalu-ated. By using Monte Carlo simulation, the probability distribution of system availability over time and the range values of the required resources to maintain target system availability were estimated. This information can provide decision makers with the 95% confidence level of the required resources to achieve target system availability over total life cycle of the weapons systems, which includes the probability for the worst case values, the best case values and the expected values. It is helpful for the decision maker to fully understand how many re-sources are required to maintain target system availability under uncertainty. As the defense policy based on the limited budget and manpower shrinking, the de-veloped decision model can provide logistics managers to cope with proper budget and manpower allocation for the integrated logistics support in the future defense.
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