Hybrid Demand Forecasting and Fuzzy System Dynamics Techniques for the Effectiveness Analysis on Weapon Equipments

• Main Authors: Wei Ssu-Tu, 司徒瑋
• Other Authors: Kuo-Chen Hung
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62568717430241755450

碩士 === 國防大學管理學院 === 運籌管理學系 === 98 === Normalization of military spare parts supply and timely repair are the key factors to maintain the effectiveness of weapon equipments. Once the supply is not enough to cover the demand that will result in reduction of equipment availability, and affect the execution of military combat readiness. Because the national defense budgets are limited, how to accurate evaluate the demand of military spare parts supply. It is an important issue to strike a balance between national defense capability and resources utilization. Therefore, this study has two purposes, which are: (1) the forecasting methods are emploed to evaluate the optimal demand. (2) After considered the allocation of national defense budget, predict the influence degree of result for equipment availability, and to provide high-level military leader as a reference for setting equipment availability. This study uses two-stage mode. First, A variety of forecasting models Conduct performance evaluation, and estimate demand for the next year. Second, the concept of system dynamics was employed to construct a military spare parts supply chain model. Futher, fuzzy arithmetic operations was used to address the factors of uncertainty in the demand, allocated time, and budget allocation as well as improve the shortcoming of the traditional system dynamics with using crisp value. It with lead to a more refined overall model. The results of this study indicated that the ARIMA model can fit the trend of military spare parts demand. When based on the mode of demand-oriented with budget allocation, the equipment can be maintained at above the ministerial standard (85%).If based on mode of supply-driven, the equipment in the target year will be lower than the ministerial standard after 349 days. If it would like to maintain the existing ministerial standard, the budget must be increased 3.64%, otherwise, the ministerial standard need to be adjusted or adopt other maintenance behavior for maintain the national defense capability. This message will show strength of relationship between budget allocation and equipment availability for the high-level military leader, to provide the Logistics Readiness as a reference for future.