| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 98 === This study use “Markov Transition Scenario Planning” method to Scenario Analysis, Foresight the smart mobility aids appearance, control method, power source, necessary functions for elder.
After analysis, the key decision factors of future smart mobility aids are “Have seat”, “No seat”, “Completely passive”, “User control”, “Autonomous behavior”, “Battery”, “Fuel cells”, “Gasoline”, “Situational awareness”, “Mobility”, “Driving awareness”, “Ergonomic design”, “Physiological Measurement”, “Network application” and “Video Entertainment” fifteen Dimension include factors. Use the concepts of the timable states of transition of Markov Chain, and found the uncertain states of the key decision factors which are “autopilot”, “fuel cell”, “CO2 convert to oil”, “Driving awareness”, and “Network application”. Use key decision factors of Markov changeless state describes the scenario background, then adds key decision factors of Markov changeable (trend) state and uncertain state dividing into five portfolio: basis scenario, advance scenario, Experiment scenario, Breakthrough scenario and Challenge scenario. Through the aspects of trigger points, whether on anticipate possible routes could be determined, as a basis to judge whether invest funding and research or not.
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