| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 98 === Within The theory of survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard model and the stratified Cox proportional hazard model were applied in to investigate motorcyclists’
willingness to do idling stop on the red light by means of the contingent valuation method questionnaire survey. Through data compilation, model construction, parameter calibration and goodness of fit test for the model, the result shows that motorcyclists’ behavior of idling stop on red is significantly influenced by four major categories: "the awareness of energy saving and carbon reduction awareness," "the characteristics of using motorcycle," "the health Awareness," and "personal property."
Using the data of a total of 603 valid questionnaires with SPSS software to construct the Cox models. Finally, according to the days of riding motorcycle per week, divide into two groups (two models) and construct each group to become the stratified Cox proportional hazard model. After the model testing and variable selection, there are five variables in model I and four variables in model II, moreover, there are three same variables, "turn off and then launch a pollution not by perception, " "the willingness to do idling stop (because of the oil price rising)," "the belief of following other motorcyclists to do idling stop," in the two models.
Finally, consulting the study of the financial academic decision making using the Cox model as a model of early warning methods, through the survival function of the projections and determine the appropriate critical value, we can observe the change of variables to count the actual benefits ─ the increase of idling stop time. For example in model I, we can calculate the increase of idling stop time with the variable of “the belief of following other motorcyclists to do idling stop.” We find that the idling stop and the value of the variable shows a positive trend, that the total idling stop time increases 280 seconds, even 400 seconds (the average idling stop time per person increases 0.98 seconds, even 1.4 seconds) if the belief of following other motorcyclists to do idling stop could be escalated.
|
|---|
