| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班工業工程與管理組 === 98 === Cycle time is one of the most important indexes for evaluating the achievement of an enterprise and it must be monitored continuously. In many factories, the producing environments often change by a lot of complicated reasons. Thus, it is hard to predict the cycle time accurately. In general, cycle time is often predicted by experienced engineers. In this situation, however, the prediction of the cycle time maybe subjective and the experience may not be able to pass to other engineers. Hence, the main objective of this study is to constructing a reliable prediction model of cycle time. First, all production information in the factory are assembled and the key factors for cycle time are identified using stepwise regression analysis. The confidence interval of the cycle time is then obtained via the regression model. Moreover, engineers can enhance the accuracy of prediction model by controlling the key factors found through the stepwise regression analysis. A real case from an IC packaging and testing company is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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