Technology and Demand Forecast for Renewable Energy Systems: An Example of Photovoltaic Energy System

• Main Authors: Yu-JiunOu, 歐育君
• Other Authors: Li-Hsing Shih
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83246652048921197057

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 資源工程學系碩博士班 === 98 === Developing renewable energy, i.e photovoltaic electricity system, has become the emphasis of national policy with the shortage of energy. Though there are subsidies from government to expand the application of photovoltaic electricity system, it is not popular in ordinary family. Two reasons account for this, one is technology and cost of photovoltaic electricity system, and the other is consumers’ demand for attitude, willingness to pay, and patterns of photovoltaic electricity system. Therefore it is critical to forecast scientifically how the photovoltaic electricity system diffuse and demand with time. This study combines the conjoint analysis and the technology forecasting to focus on consumers’ preference structure variation which is influenced by development of supply. According to combining the conjoint analysis and the technology forecasting, we consider changes in technology and difference in individual preference, then discussing consumers’ relative importance of an attribute and preference structure, as well as the changes of market share and diffusion in different technologies of photovoltaic electricity system. The results show that (1) in the market share, c-Si technology is from 91.38% in 2010 down to 59.69% in 2030, and thin film technology is from 8.62% in 2010 up to 40.31% in 2030 due to cost and efficiency and (2) c-Si technology is preferred by consumers who need much electricity, reside in northern Taiwan and prefer attribute of function while thin film technology is preferred by consumers who need less electricity supply, reside in Taiwan except north and prefer attribute of price.