Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population: Causality Relationship in Latin American and The Caribbean Countries

• Main Authors: ClaudiaSoruco, 蘇茹可
• Other Authors: Ching-Chih Chang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/42155824988671889498

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 國際管理碩士在職專班 === 98 === This study examines the causality relationship among energy consumption, economic growth, carbon dioxide emission and population in twenty countries from Latin America and the Caribbean region over the period 1971-2005. The main purpose for testing the relationship among these variables is, to know in which of the analyzed countries it would be possible to implement conserving energy policies without affecting their economic growth. The methodology includes the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips and Perron (PP) tests, in order to test the (non) stationarity of the variables; the use of Johansen maximum likelihood procedure, in order to test the existence of cointegration among the variables; vector error correction modeling (VECM), in order to analyze the direction of the causality, and distinguish between short and long run causality; and, if cointegration is not found, vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality, in order to determine if the past and present values of the independent variables provide some useful information to forecast the dependent variables in the short term. The results indicate that only in seven countries it will be possible to implement conserving energy polices without affecting their economic growth, the other thirteen should care about their economic growth before design any conserving energy policy.