| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 高階經理人碩士在職專班 === 98 === This research differs from the previous ones in several ways. I use 15 financial variables and 8 non-financial variables to build up financial crisis forecasting model. Through two-phase models, I use Logit model to analyze their forecasting capabilities of these financial and non-financial variables first, and then use the D-Score model to evaluate the D scores of the delisting companies. Research sample period covers form 2004 to 2009, and I apply to 52 delisting companies. Comparing the D-score of the delisting companies with those of the normal companies, the D-Score model is used to demonstrate factors that can be used to predict the probabilities of delisting in the coming years. The results of this study show that the financial factors such as Debt ratio, Quick ratio, Operating Profit ratio, EPS, Operating Free Cash Flows; and the non-financial factors such as Director Ownership ratio, Director Pledge ratio, Change of Managing Director, President and Accounting Supervisors, have explanatory power for the delisting events. Using the D-Score model, the average score of the delisting companies is 6.94, which is higher than that of the normal companies, indicating that these financial and non-financial variables can be used to forecast which companies will go bankruptcy in the future. Applying this model to 2007-2009 delisting companies, the D-Score is 6.58, (which is well above the benchmark the models predict). Thus I believe that the Logit and the D-Score model are effective for forecasting whether companies will delist or not.
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