A Study on Interactive Relation in Floral Price

• Main Authors: Wan-Ting Hsu, 許菀婷
• Other Authors: 簡立賢
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62584217804944939248

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 98 === The aim of this article is to study the four major flower wholesale markets in Taiwan, Rose, Oriental Lily, Chrysanthemum (spray), and Gerbera and their interrelations of transaction prices. Cointegration test is used to examine the relationships of transaction prices and analyze by the formula vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The data are collected monthly from January 1998 to February 2010. Based on the empirical results and the short-run causal relationship indicates that, in the four major flower wholesale markets, the price of Rose and Gerbera will affect each other when transaction price changes. And when consider the past trends of Gerbera price changes will help to predict the current trading price of Chrysanthemum (spray). In addition, the flower wholesale market in Taipei and Changhua, price changes of Gerbera is ahead of Oriental Lily. Therefore, consider the price changes of Gerbera will help to predict the current trading price of Oriental Lily. Secondly, the long-run causal relationship indicates the transaction prices of Rose, Oriental Lily, Chrysanthemum (spray), and Gerbera showed the same interrelationships in four major flower wholesale markets. The changes of transaction price of Rose, Oriental Lily and Gerbera will produce significant price changes in the same direction. In addition, price changes of Chrysanthemum (spray) are ahead of Rose, Oriental Lily, and Gerbera. Therefore, the current trading price of Rose, Oriental Lily, and Gerbera are affected by the changes of transaction price of Chrysanthemum (spray) in the past. Lastly, review the relationship between high-price and fair-price flowers. The study finds there is no short-run causal relationship in high-price flowers, but exists in long-run causal relationship. Fair-price flowers have both long-run and short-run uni-directional causal relationship. In the relation of high-price and fair-price flowers, Rose and Gerbera are having short-run bi-directional causal relationship. Gerbera and Oriental Lily are only having short-run uni-directional causal relationship. Because Rose, Oriental Lily and Gerbera are having long-run bi-directional causal relationship, Gerbera can be considered as the same group of high-price flower. Chrysanthemum (spray) has the long-run uni-directional causal relationship with this group of high-price flower.