Integrating Sales-Forecasting Model and Real Options Analysis for R&D Flexibility Planning: A Case Study of Biochip Company

• Main Authors: Cheng-Yo Wu, 吳建佑
• Other Authors: Juite Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54897649783567617005

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 98 === Biochip is a rising technology in biotech industry. It integrates many specialized fields and can be used to develop various products. Developing a biochip usually requires high cost and long leadtime, so it faces high technology and market uncertainties. In addition, most of biochip products are for research purposes and it cannot be used in clinical diagnosis directly. These challenges make biochip companies difficult for entering new market or achieving corporate growth. This paper develops a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmapping and real options analysis for managing uncertainty for biochip development project. From perspectives of market, company, product, and technology, technology roadmapping can assist decision makers in exploring various uncertainties in the strategic decision process. Based on the obtained strategic decision process, a real options model integrated with a sales forecast model is developed to determine best decision at each review stage and to estimate the value of one biochip product in Taiwan market. The obtained results show that using the proposed real options analysis could dramatically increase project value, even in the situation of great market uncertainty and high discount rate. The major contribution of this study is that it provides a systematic R&D strategic decision process for managing uncertainties and risks in the biochip industry. An industrial example is used to illusteate the proposed methodology.