A study on VaR Model Used to Estimate the Maximum Probable Loss of CPM in Taiwan

碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 風險管理與保險學系碩士在職專班 === 98 === Construction machinery is considered as one of the five major factors for construction work. Under the context of ever renewing construction technology,the role-play of construction machinery has been received with increasing attention. Since Industrial rev...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chin-Ti Yu, 游清第
Other Authors: 作者未提供
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2010
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/55354533941552816359
Description
Summary:碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 風險管理與保險學系碩士在職專班 === 98 === Construction machinery is considered as one of the five major factors for construction work. Under the context of ever renewing construction technology,the role-play of construction machinery has been received with increasing attention. Since Industrial revolution, machinery and equipment have always been geared towards the model development for precision, high-speed,sophistication, automation, and system integration. As such, failure model and the risk resulted have become more and more serious, such as those potential factors as price fluctuation, climatic influence, human remiss, geological scenario, legitimate or contractual responsibility, and other variable, so that construction machinery has enshrined a lot of complex and changeable factors during the process of operation. This study plans to make use of the concept of VaR(Value-at-Risk) risk value so as to build up a Maximum Probable Loss(MPL) estimation method to facilitate the reference of decision making to underwrite insurance of contractor''s plant and machinery. It is hoped that the study can render positive help to the management for insurance of contractor''s plant and machinery. Due to the fact that the underwriting decision making for insurance of contractor''s plant and machinery will be affected by complex and sophisticated engineering and hazardous factors as well as its regulation and fee, each of the companies will vary among themselves based on its underwriting experiences, underwriting standard, and management strategy. The objectives of this study are found in two items: Using previous loss experience, it will build up a risk value estimation method most appropriate for contractor''s plant and machinery insurance so as to obtain the value of maximum probable loss as the decision making criteria for underwriter. In such a way, it can help lower underwriting loss and ensure underwriting profit. It can provide insurance industry and supervisors to be aware of the risk position at all time so as to formulate operation and management strategy to ensure its capability of solvency.