Discussing Risk Aversion Tracks ofthe Battlefield by Shock Model

• Main Authors: Puu-yih Aur, 敖埔義
• Other Authors: Qing-ji,Kuo
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/26212841359395740733

碩士 === 立德大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 98 === War in order to achieve the national targets of violence, is usually the practice of the use of non-rational; In order to achieve this goal, we must construct the corresponding force, the use of appropriate policy, but we also must assume a certain degree of risk. Therefore, at the national level of decision-making cycle, the above-mentioned goals, ability, strategy, risk is the decision-makers must consider the factors. These factors and variables to each other, such as the goal is too large or shrunk, the capacity of excessive or inadequate, misplaced or disorder strategy, the need to have different risks. Risk management experts said: "The 21st century is the greatest risk of risk do not know what is." Extent of the global information technology has become more sophisticated, and thus form a pattern of unprecedented globalization, regardless of the operation of the government or general business activities, are faced with different from the rate of change in the past. Unknown how the changes may make the preparations for the arrival time and space race, risk management capability is the key to victory or defeat! A lot of professional risk assessment model, most of which can be divided into quantitative type of analysis (Quantitative Analysis), Department of hazards by the nature of identification, risk response assessment, damage assessment and other steps to calculate the probability of the value of a risk as the risk estimates to determine the basis. This article is the concept of management according to the battlefield, depending on the desired characteristics of the battlefield, the integration of the six categories of risk assessment battlefield area (indirect impact on the battlefield personnel, military personnel, battlefield, battlefield environmental safety, cost effectiveness, command regulations, the task to achieve) and the cost of the concept of to A, B, C and three occurred in the possibility of high, medium and low risk level of the three concepts of risk events battlefield damage assessment, an attempt by the use of specialized analytical model, to enhance the scope of the assessment with a view to a more realistic response entities and by the six major areas of clear analysis and classification, to the battlefield more systematic risk, but also more predictable in advance and can be more beneficial to take pre-emptive measures to help under the battlefield fighting the risk of different database complete the establishment. In this study, the risk is to the battlefield for the different, the battlefield for the establishment of six major areas of risk analysis, depending on the nature and impact of risk reached the level of the task to distinguish between different levels in order to establish the level of structure-style risk factors, combined with environmental impact different mode, and to develop a model to describe the evolution of battlefield risks, which in turn is determined to quantify the risks, the impact of strategy and operations, and lead to the risk level or structure also changes the properties of factors and the impact of increased or lower, the risk of proliferation derived trajectory or path in order to provide decision-makers or commanders in the face of a different state, to make appropriate reference to judge or decision-making. Believe that this is based on quantitative analysis of risk transfer, one of the few articles.