Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Risk and Exports: Evidence from Taiwan

• Main Authors: SU-MING CHOU, 周蘇民
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/00651911767585967750

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系 === 98 === In general presume, Exchange Rate depreciation effect stimulate the export growth and abate the imports, vice versa. Moreover, the risks generated by the deprecation maybe reduce the export revenue. So, the effect of rate depreciation and appreciation on exports are common concerns issues for participants of capital markets and government policy makers, therefore, there are scholars devoting themselves in the related research. This study adopts the work of Fang, Wen Shwo (2005)，measure the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate risk on exports for the Taiwan trading. To export compile effective exchange rate index of Taiwan. Using 1980 to 2009 monthly data of twelve major exports trading partners over the period of. To bring into foreign incomes, exchange rate risk and export risk variables. Using these variables and export design model together confer. Using univariate GARCH and autoregressive distributed lag techniques. This study test depreciation rate and the time-varying exchange rate risk affect export benefits of Taiwan. According to the test results, discovered that the overseas obtained influence export the average effect is not big, but actually does not bring the small perturbation to the export trade, in addition exports the risk influence export effect to be not worthy of mentioning. The exchange rate depreciation affects to the export, is not obvious with the general theory depreciation advantageous export hypothesis, therefore the exchange rate depreciation policy as if promotes the export mode of administration effectively, and obtains the exchange rate risk to be helpful the conclusion which the export trade carries on, the Exchange rate fluctuation to the to export trade have the positive influence.