| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 金融資訊研究所 === 98 === This study is targeted at the listed or cover-the-counter companies with respect to which negative auditing reports have been issued by CPAs concerning their continuing operations during the period from December 31, 1999 to December 31, 2006. Factoring Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (“TCRI”) in the influencing variables studied herein and using Cox’s proportional hazard model (“PHM”) proposed in 1972, a suvival analysis is carried out by observing the survival status of such companies through December 31, 2009, conducting variable extraction with respect to the important financial indicies adopted in local and international researches by means of factor analysis, and taking into account the current practice of financial institutions which use TCRI as an significant index in making decisions as to extending credit lines.
Based on this study, it is found that the peak point of an enterprise’s survival risk would fall in the 42nd month after said enterprise experienced a potential financial hazard, and that the risk was rising prior to such peak poin but began to decrease gradually afterwards. Furthermore, the key factors affecting the sruvival of an enterprise are its financial structire, operational efficiency and TCRI. When the debt ratio, long-term capital adequacy rate or operational capital ratio (i.e., financial structure) is decreasing, the outcome of tis study is nevertheless different from the findings of previous international and local literatures. The primary reason responsible for such difference should be owing to the fact that the targeted enterprises under this study are those with potential hazards. Therefore, when such an enterprise’s debt decreased, a creditor was presumed to have held less optimistic views on the prospects of the enterprise’s future and hence have withdrawn its capital step by step. Therefore, if and when an enterprise experiences any potential hazard, a different perspective should be taken in evaluating the change of its financial structure than does a normal company.
Moreover, as the turnover rate for total assets, turnover rate for fixed assets (i.e., operational efficiency) rises, the risk will be lowered, and vice versa. Support for the findings can be found from both local and international literatures. Another feature of this study is the addition of TCRI to the variables contemplated by this study. A positive diagnosis suggests that the risk becomes higher as the level of TCRI gets higher, which corroborates the current views held by financial insitutions.
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